Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Croatia⮸

Population $4,105,267$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $192,987$ on 2020-12-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $3,101$ on 2020-12-19

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $20,118$ on 2020-12-19

Switzerland⮸

Population $8,654,622$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $403,989$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,037,207.7}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 306.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,037,207.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,602$ on 2020-12-19

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $85,887$ on 2020-12-19

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,938,083$ on 2020-12-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $68,447$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{40,489.2}{1 + 10^{-0.019 (t - 56.6)}}\) (asimptote \(40,489.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $620,166$ on 2020-12-19

US⮸

Population $331,002,651$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $17,655,591$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{393,379,969.7}{1 + 10^{-0.005 (t - 576.3)}}\) (asimptote \(393,379,969.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $316,159$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{305,064.2}{1 + 10^{-0.007 (t - 142.1)}}\) (asimptote \(305,064.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $17,339,432$ on 2020-12-19

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $2,010,077$ on 2020-12-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $67,177$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{46,118.4}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 52.4)}}\) (asimptote \(46,118.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,938,546$ on 2020-12-19

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $367,120$ on 2020-12-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $7,993$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,094.4}{1 + 10^{-0.022 (t - 55.5)}}\) (asimptote \(6,094.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $359,127$ on 2020-12-19

Germany⮸

Population $83,783,942$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,508,518$ on 2020-12-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $26,171$ on 2020-12-19

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $375,232$ on 2020-12-19

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Saudi Arabia recovered 95%
Iceland recovered 90%
Trinidad and Tobago recovered 83%
Nepal recovered 81%
Maldives recovered 80%
Jordan recovered 78%
Tajikistan recovered 76%
India recovered 70%
Ethiopia recovered 66%
Kyrgyzstan recovered 61%
Austria recovered 59%
Armenia recovered 55%
Togo recovered 52%
Bangladesh recovered 51%
Poland recovered 45%
Kenya recovered 40%
Morocco recovered 34%
Jamaica recovered 34%
Romania recovered 33%
Malta recovered 28%
Italy recovered 23%
Croatia recovered 20%
Iraq recovered 19%
Belarus recovered 18%
Montenegro recovered 17%
Iran recovered 14%
Slovenia recovered 14%
Bulgaria recovered 9%
Ukraine recovered 5%

Saudi Arabia⮸

Population $34,813,871$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $360,848$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{348,049.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 108.4)}}\) (asimptote \(348,049.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,112$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,982.1}{1 + 10^{-0.012 (t - 133.0)}}\) (asimptote \(5,982.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-12 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $3,014$ on 2020-12-19

Iceland⮸

Population $341,243$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,621$ on 2020-12-19

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28$ on 2020-12-19

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $126$ on 2020-12-19

Trinidad and Tobago⮸

Population $1,399,488$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,974$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,520.4}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 188.6)}}\) (asimptote \(6,520.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $123$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{121.3}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 181.4)}}\) (asimptote \(121.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $425$ on 2020-12-19

Nepal⮸

Population $29,136,808$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-04-17 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $253,184$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{297,329.0}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 191.2)}}\) (asimptote \(297,329.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-05-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,777$ on 2020-12-19

Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{2,292.9}{1 + 10^{-0.014 (t - 174.3)}}\) (asimptote \(2,292.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-04-21 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $8,840$ on 2020-12-19